Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Markets Scoff at More Hawkish FOMC Rate Projections

Summary United States: Slowing Price Growth a Welcome Reprieve, FOMC Signals More Work Ahead Headline and core CPI surprised to the downside in November, rising 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. The FOMC slowed its pace of monetary policy tightening, raising the fed funds rate 50 bps to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. Retail sales flopped and industrial […]

2023 Global Economic Outlook

Summary Forecast Changes We have not made significant changes to our country-specific or global growth outlooks, and continue to believe the global economy will enter recession in 2023. As of now, we believe over 35% of the global economy will slip into recession next year, and forecast global GDP growth of just 1.7%. Should our […]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

EUR/USD: The Fed Doesn’t Want to be Dovish. The ECB Either. The past week can be divided into two parts: before and after the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The US inflation data produced a bombshell effect on the eve of this event, on Tuesday, December 13. The Consumer […]

US to Start Rebuilding Oil Reserves Next Year

Market movers today There are only few key data releases left for 2022, and this week will be a quiet one ahead of Christmas as the main focus remains on digesting last week’s central banks meetings. German Ifo index will be released for December today, and consensus is looking for a modest uptick following the […]

BOJ Rate Decision: Setting Up for Policy Change

Japan’s inflation rate is finally starting to tick up. It’s expected that the country will report a further increase in inflation in November to 3.9% from 3.7% prior. But, before that information is made available, the BOJ is expected to meet to decide its monetary policy stance. Normally this would be an issue for a […]

Bank of England Preview

Bank of England Preview – Back to 50bp as BoE Nears End of Hiking Cycle We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hike the Bank Rate by 50bp on Thursday. We still expect the Bank Rate to peak at 3.75% in February 2023. A slightly dovish BoE and a hawkish ECB should send EUR/GBP […]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

EUR/USD: Ahead of the Fed and ECB Meetings Two key events await us next week. The first is the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on Wednesday, December 14. Recall that the key interest rate on the dollar is 4.00% at the moment, and that Fed […]

All Eyes on Central Banks this Week

Market movers today We start the week in a quiet fashion, with Danish November inflation figures the data highlight in Scandinavia today. We expect a decline in Danish CPI inflation in November to 9.7% from 10.1% in October on the back of lower energy inflation. Later this week, central banks will take the market focus, […]

A Deluge of 50bp Hikes

Friday’s US PPI print was soft, but not soft enough to meet market expectations. The US producer prices in November rose 7.4% since a year ago, from 8% printed a month earlier, and more than 11% printed in summer. But still slightly higher than 7.2% that analysts predicted. The kneejerk reaction was as expected. The […]

One for the Road – Heavyweight Data and Central bank Decisions Before Year End

EUR/USD awaits double catalyst The euro consolidates as both central banks will fire their last salvos of the year. Inflation expectations remain high in the eurozone and bolster the likelihood of a 50 bp hike by the ECB. But market dynamics are driven by the greenback. Despite the euphoria from Powell’s hint of slower tightening, […]