US NFP and How the Market Could React

Tomorrow has the all-important release of US labor market numbers. But the Fed’s Powell kind of already robbed the thunder from the release during his speech at the Brookings Institute yesterday. He basically implied that the Fed would start slowing down its tightening at the next meeting. Naturally the market jumped and the dollar weakened […]

Cliff Notes: Costs Heap Pressure on the Consumer and Business

Key insights from the week that was. Updates on the consumer, housing and investment kept Australian market participants busy this week. While new information for the US argued for greater caution from policy makers. Domestically, the week began with a sour update on the Australian consumer, October’s retail sales printing its first negative result of […]

US Labour Market Takes Centre Stage

Market movers today It’s time for US Nonfarm Payrolls, which is one of the key data points for the Fed going into their next FOMC meeting on 14 December. We expect US job growth to decline from 261k to a still decent 220k (consensus 200k). Also keep a close eye on wage growth, which is a […]

All Eyes on NFP

Sentiment was mixed at yesterday’s trading session. Equity bulls were timid, while the dollar bears were in charge of the market after the latest PCE data, which is the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation showed that the core PCE index slowed more than expected in October. Personal spending accelerated in line with expectations, while income […]

Elliott Wave View: Gold Has Turned Bullish

Short term Elliott Wave View in Gold (XAUUSD) suggests the rally from 9.28.2022 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 9.28.2022 low, wave 1 ended at 1729.46 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 1616.71. The metal then resumed higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) […]

Markets Recently Gave Much More Weight to Softer Data

Markets Yesterday, the post-Powell bond rally simply continued as markets read US data as supporting the case for the Fed to slow its anti-inflationary campaign in December and maybe also at Q1 2023 meetings. US data were mixed, but in line with the recent reaction function, soft data outweighed. Challenger job cuts jumped sharply, mainly […]

USD/CAD Drifting ahead of Job Reports

The Canadian dollar continues to show limited movement. In the European session, USD/CAD is almost unchanged at 1.3433. We are likely to see stronger movement in the North American session, as both the US and Canada release the November employment reports. US nonfarm payrolls expected to soften Today’s highlight is the US nonfarm employment report, […]

Australian Dollar Steady ahead of NFP

The Australian dollar’s has posted small gains today and is trading at 0.6816. After starting the week with sharp losses, AUD/USD has rebounded and hit a 13-week high on Thursday, at 0.6845. All eyes on US nonfarm payrolls Today’s highlight is the US nonfarm employment report, with a consensus of 200,000 for November. This follows […]

US: Employment Shows Further Signs of Cooling, But Elevated Wages Will Keep Fed on the Defensive 

The U.S. economy added 263k jobs in November, coming in above the consensus forecast of 200k. Overall, revisions to the two prior months were negative, subtracting 23k from the previously reported figures. Employment gains on the service-side (+184k) were largely concentrated in health care & social assistance (+68k), leisure & hospitality (+88k), other services (+24k) […]

Canada's Labour Market Adds Jobs in November  

The Canadian labour market added 10.1k positions in November, with full-time employment up 50.7k and part-time employment down 40.6k. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points, to 5.1%. The participation rate also fell to 64.8% (down 0.1 percentage points). By industry, employment was up in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+21k), manufacturing […]