Canada's Economy Eked Out Positive Growth in Q3

Canada looks on track to deliver a GDP reading next week that’s just above our 1% (annualized) forecast for Q3. Still, that’s a marked slowdown from the 3.2% average rate over the first half of 2022—a figure that captured much of the initial “reopening” rebound in economic activity as pandemic restrictions eased. Growth in household […]

Week Ahead – All Eyes on the Jobs Report

US Wall Street returns after the Thanksgiving holiday and what a week we have in store. The jobs report on Friday is the obvious highlight, with Fed policymakers keen to see further signs of inflationary pressures easing and less tightness in the labour market. There’s a whole host of other data due next week as […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: FOMC Eyes Half-Point Hike

U.S. Highlights Minutes from the November FOMC meeting showed a sizeable majority of members were receptive to the idea of slowing the pace of rate hikes in the near-term. New home sales jumped 7.5% month-on-month (m/m), far outpacing expectations for a moderate decline, but remain down 5.8% year-on-year (y/y). Consumer sentiment declined in November for […]

The Big Picture

Highlights: Various shocks challenge the global economy, with different undercurrents driving the economic outlook across regions. The euro area and the US are headed for recession, while the Chinese growth engine is sputtering. However, the outlook starts to brighten in 2024, once China leaves its zero-Covid behind and the US economy exits from its downturn. […]

Chinese Protests Give Hit to Risk Sentiment

Market movers today We have no tier-1 data today but will get euro M3 growth, Norwegian retail sales and some Fed speakers tonight. This week focus turns to Euro Flash CPI for November on Wednesday, which will be important for the size of the ECB hike at the 15 December meeting, see Weekly Focus – Euro inflation key to size of […]

China Protests

Massive anti-Covid protests in the biggest Chinese cities marked the weekend. Despite rising Covid cases and renewed Covid measures, thousands of Chinese citizens gathered to show their discontent with Xi Jinping’s Covid zero strategy, that nailed millions at home for months, without any progress. As a result, three years have gone by since the pandemic […]

Growing Unrest in China Setting the Stage for a Risk-off Start

Markets On Friday, US and European bond markets showed a divergent picture as US markets reopened after the Thanksgiving Holiday. US Treasuries continued to outperform. A disappointing US PMI released earlier last week only reinforced the view that there is a strong enough case for the Fed to slow the pace interest rate hikes to […]

The Market Stays Cautious ahead of Jerome Powell's Speech and the NFP Report

On Friday, the Canadian dollar was the best-performing currency among the 20 global currencies we track, while the Brazilian real showed the weakest results. The Chinese yuan was the leader among emerging markets, while the Japanese yen underperformed among majors. In focus today U.S. Dollar Index The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slightly strengthened on Friday’s […]

Aussie Sinks on China Unrest, Retail Sales

The Australian dollar has started the trading week with sharp losses. AUD/USD is down 0.70% in Europe, trading at 0.6704. China jitters send Australian dollar tumbling Covid cases continue to rise in China despite the government’s zero-Covid policy, and the mass lockdowns have triggered protests across China. The demonstrators have clashed with police and some […]

Bitcoin's Never-Ending Search for a Bottom

Market picture Bitcoin closed last week with a new formal decline, losing $100 to $16490. At the start of trading on Monday, it loses another $360 to $16150. The week starts with a subdued risk appetite on global markets due to China unrest. Ethereum is performing better, adding 3.3% over the week to $1170. Other […]