Could ECB Adopt Its June 2022 Playbook and Preannounce a Rate Cut?

The European Central Bank is hosting its third rate-setting gathering for 2024 on Thursday, April 11. The chances of significant announcements are quite low, but the market appears ready to start the countdown for the first rate cut since 2016.

Japanese Government and BoJ Officials Hit the Wires on a Near-Daily Basis

Japanese government and BoJ officials hit the wires on a near-daily basis, this morning included, with verbal warnings against excessive yen moves. Central bank governor Ueda reiterated the need for supportive monetary policy with the price trend being still below 2%. It’s necessary now to check how wage growth evolves in the hard data after the spring talks (which resulted into a 5.24% negotiated wage increase).

Bitcoin Proves That It is Bull Market Now

Bitcoin added over 5% during the day on Monday, rising to $72.8K at its peak, about 1k below its all-time high. The ease of gains was another reminder that this is a bull market for cryptocurrencies. The corrective pullback from the March highs gave bitcoin a needed respite, allowing for further upward movement.

Australian Dollar Extends Gains Despite Soft Confidence Data

The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6620, up 0.25%.

Gold Temporarily Ignores Negative News

Gold has been hitting all-time highs almost daily for the past two weeks, reaching $2365 in the spot market on Tuesday before the start of US trading. The ability to rise above $2070 per ounce, which gold found in late February, has signalled a break of resistance that has kept gold above since August 2020.

NZ Dollar Climbs Ahead of RBNZ Rate Decision

The New Zealand dollar has posted considerable gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6065, up 0.54% and its highest level since March 21.

U.S. Small Business Optimism Index Edges Lower in March, Falling to the Lowest Level Since 2012

NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 points to 88.5 in March, disappointing market expectations for a modest increase to 89.7. This marked the lowest level in the headline index since 2012.

Sunset Market Commentary

Core bounds found some reprieve in this week’s second transitory trading session bridging Friday’s payrolls and tomorrow’s US CPI data. German Bunds outperforms US Treasuries after the ECB’s quarterly Bank and Lending Survey provided some more backing for the flagged June policy rate cut.

Will Friday's Data Add to Hopes of UK Exit from Recession?

With inflation in the UK coming down faster than previously expected, the Bank of England (BoE) appeared more dovish than expected at its latest gathering, on March 21. Once again, officials kept interest rates unchanged, but this time, there were no members voting for a hike. There was only one dissenting vote, and that was for a 25bps reduction.

RBNZ April 2024 Monetary Policy Review: Staying the Course

The RBNZ left the OCR at 5.5% as expected. The record of the meeting states that the risks to the outlook were viewed as "little changed" since the February Statement.