Week Ahead – Earnings Season Underway

US It will be a busy week filled with a wide range of economic indicators, lots of Fed speak, and earnings season heats up.  Wall Street will now not just fixate on inflation data, but also on how quickly the economy softens.  Traders will pay close attention to the Empire manufacturing index, retail sales, PPI, […]

Canadian Inflation Data to Land as BoC Weighs Another Rate Hike

The final Canadian inflation reading of 2022 will arrive next week. With the Bank of Canada’s highly-anticipated interest rate decision looming on Jan. 25, all eyes will be on this report and the BoC’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A very strong December labour market report has tilted odds towards the BoC hiking the overnight […]

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Pace of Fed Tightening to Downshift Further

Summary United States: War Not Yet Won on Inflation The December Consumer Price Index data was the most significant macroeconomic development of the week and showed modest deflation to finish 2022. We now expect the Fed to hike the federal funds rate by just 25 bps at its next policy meeting on February 1, but […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: Inflation Turning, But Victory Still Nowhere Insight

U.S. Highlights After fifteen rounds of votes, Kevin McCarthy was elected the new House Speaker. However, it didn’t come without making major concessions, setting the stage for more political brinksmanship over the coming months. Headline inflation came in below expectations – falling 0.1% m/m. The core measure rose by 0.3% m/m, bring the 12-month change […]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

EUR/USD: Low Inflation Has Dropped the Dollar The main event of the past week, which dealt another blow to the dollar, was the publication on Thursday, January 12, of data on consumer inflation in the US. The actual figures were fully in line with market expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) in annual terms fell […]

Forward Guidance: U.S. Inflation Data Watched Closely for Further Signs of Easing

U.S. December inflation data will be watched closely next week for fresh evidence that early easing in price growth in recent months could be sustained. We expect year-over-year U.S. consumer price growth to slow significantly in December to 6.3% from 7.1% in November. That would be the lowest level of annual price growth since October […]

Week Ahead – Inflation Remains Key

US This week’s main event will be when a little inflation report comes out. The US CPI report for December is expected to show disinflation trends remain firmly in place.  The year-over-year CPI reading is expected to cool from 7.1% to 6.6%, while the monthly reading is expected to remain flat. At the end of […]

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Economic Growth Remains on a Positive Trajectory, For Now

Summary United States: Economic Growth Remains on a Positive Trajectory, For Now During December, payrolls rose by 223K while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% and average hourly earnings eased 0.3%. Job openings (JOLTS) edged down to 10.46 million in November. ISM manufacturing fell to 48.4 in December, while the services index unexpectedly dropped to […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: Plenty of Jobs, Except in Congress

U.S. Highlights The labor market cooled modestly in December, with 223k new jobs added and the unemployment rate ticking back down to 3.5%. The House of Representatives failed to elect a Speaker of the House on the first ballot for the first time in 100 years, delaying the start of the new legislative session in […]

Big CPI Week

Market movers today It is the big CPI week with US inflation on Thursday as the highlight. It will be yet another key input to whether the Fed hikes 25bp or 50bp at the February meeting. CPI releases are also due in Sweden, Norway and Denmark. More Fed speeches this week will also be interesting to gauge Fed members’ interpretation […]