Goldilocks?

Friday’s jobs data in the US, and more specifically, the market reaction to Friday’s jobs data helped stock markets to record their best boost since more than a month on Friday. However, Friday’s jobs report was rather… mixed, and spurred a lot of discussions and debates regarding whether the data was soft enough to convince […]

Probability of a 50 bps Fed Rate Hike in February fell

Markets It was not about the December US payrolls report last Friday, but about the non-manufacturing ISM. The post-payrolls reaction – zooming in on slightly disappointing wage growth rather than on all other strong employment components, especially in the household survey – already suggested a willingness to respond in case of a below-consensus ISM. And […]

USD/JPY Eyes Inflation, Household Data

The Japanese yen is calm on Monday and is trading slightly higher, at 132.27. The yen ended the week on a strong note, posting gains of about 1% on Friday. USD/JPY has shown significant volatility since late December. Last week, the pair traded in a range of over 500 points, which included breaking below the […]

Is Oil Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place?

After trading in a rollercoaster manner in 2022, oil seems to be starting the new year between a rock and a hard place as the outcomes of ongoing market-related themes could end up working in favor of it or against it. In other words, the risks surrounding the black liquid are two-sided, and it remains […]

Why Forex Traders Should Especially Care About the Stock Market This Quarter

We all know that the forex and stock markets are related, so it’s of course a good idea for forex traders to keep an eye on what equities are doing. But there are a couple of circumstances that are coinciding this quarter that make this relationship especially pronounced. The stock market, particularly in the United […]

Euro Extends Rally

The euro is on a tear, climbing almost 2% since Thursday. Earlier today, EUR/USD rose to 1.0731, its highest level in a month. Eurozone inflation falls sharply Germany and other eurozone members recorded lower inflation in December, and eurozone inflation was expected to also soften. What was surprising was the extent of the drop, with […]

The Greenback Slides Against All G10 Peers

Markets US yields enforced a slight comeback after tanking on Friday following slower-than-expected wage growth and a sharp retreat in the non-manufacturing December ISM. Advances in early European trading amounted to 5-6 bps across the curve but lacked strong-enough legs in a session without any news to retain all gains. The upcoming December CPI release […]

Equity Rally Stalls on Fed Comments

Market movers today Both Norway and Denmark release CPI for December this morning while we will get various activity data out of Sweden later in the day, see Nordics section below. In the US we get the NFIB small business optimism index. It is hovering at a low level and expected to stay weak. It […]

Powell Could Shoot the Fed Doves Down

Good news is that Asian stocks entered bull market. Bad news is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell could hammer the post-NFP stock rally in US stocks. Sentiment is mixed and investors are tense before Powell’s speech, and Thursday’s US inflation data. Asia enters bull market  Asian stocks entered the bull market, as […]

Dollar Faced a Second Consecutive Day of Heavy Selling Pressure

Markets Friday’s post-ISM moves petered out yesterday though US Treasuries continued to outperform German Bunds. The NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed median one-year-ahead inflation expectations continuing to decline in December, falling by 0.2 ppt to 5%, its lowest reading since July 2021. In contrast, three-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged in December at 3%. […]