Markets in Waiting Mode

Market movers today A very quiet day with no data of interest. Instead markets will be awaiting the US CPI data on Thursday. We have some ECB speeches out during the day with Holzmann, Villeroy and De Cos speaking. Overnight China will release PPI and CPI inflation for December. The 60 second overview Markets: Yesterday […]

The Test is Ongoing With Dollar Unable to Really Fight Back

Markets Global core bonds on Monday already showed a loss of momentum following Friday’s post-ISM surge and effectively lost some ground yesterday. Especially in the US, they remain well above Friday’s opening levels though. The start of the US Treasury’s mid-month refinancing operation helps explain some weakness. They eventually kicked off with a well-received $40bn […]

Australian Dollar Shrugs as CPI Jumps

The Australian dollar is trading quietly on Wednesday. AUD/USD is at 0.6904, up 0.14%. Australian CPI climbs to 7.3% Australian inflation pushed higher in November, rising to 7.3% following a 6.9% gain in October. This matched the forecast. The trimmed mean rate, a key gauge of core inflation, rose to 5.6% in November, up from […]

EUR/USD Close to 6-Month High

The euro is drifting on Wednesday, trading at 1.0730. EUR/USD has climbed about 1% this week, and Monday’s high of 1.0760 is its highest level since June 22nd. Can the euro continue to push higher? ECB unlikely to change aggressive stance Eurozone inflation has fallen back into single digits, raising hopes that inflation may have […]

Will UK Growth Data Spoil the Pound's Bounce Back?

Britain’s economy has been on the receiving end of some of the more pessimistic forecasts around for 2023 and Friday’s data dump, due at 07:00 GMT, isn’t anticipated to lift any of the gloom. The monthly output indicators will likely show that the economy went back into contraction in November, even as the Bank of […]

Why the Threat of Deflation is Real

I know — inflation has been grabbing all the headlines for a good while now — so you may wonder why the subject of deflation is relevant. First, the definitions of inflation and deflation go beyond commonly accepted meanings. As Robert Prechter’s Last Chance to Conquer the Crash says: Inflation is an increase in the […]

Focus on the FOMC Minutes Tonight and ISM Numbers This Afternoon

Market movers today The markets’ focus today will be on US data releases. The ISM Manufacturing index for December is expected to fall further into recessionary territory to 48.5 from 49.0 in November. Also, consensus expects the job openings for November to reflect a gradual cooling off in the US labour market. Consensus looks for […]

What Could Bring Negative Stock-Bond Correlation Back?

European investors got an energy boost from lower inflation reads, and the falling nat gas futures, but US investors didn’t follow up on the cheery market mood. However, US sovereign bonds gained yesterday as an indication that the latest market moves were backed by recession fears, rather than hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations… And that […]

FX Market Showed a Mixed Picture

Markets In line with the start of the new year on Monday in Europe, US investors apparently prepared/hoped for inflationary pressures to gradually ease in the upcoming year. Even with few data to support this view, US yields joined the European bond market rally with US yields declining between 5.6 bps (2-y) and 13.7 bps […]

Could Canadian Data Steal the Spotlight from US Jobs Report?

The first week of the new trading year tends to be very busy with data releases, but the market’s attention usually falls on the US employment report, non-farm payrolls in particular. The Canadian labour market statistics tend to stay away from the spotlight, but nevertheless remain significant for overall market sentiment. Especially as the Bank of Canada is hosting […]