Growing Optimism?

Equity markets are pushing higher on Wednesday, buoyed by softer yields and some promising PMI revisions in Europe. It would appear investors are increasingly coming around to the idea that central banks will be forced into cutting rates earlier than previously anticipated in order to support the economy. That would also suggest they anticipate inflation […]

Good News is Bad News for the Fed

Good News is Bad News for the Fed Leading indicators point towards a turnaround in macro momentum amid easing financial conditions, but the Fed is still far away from price stability. The less negative growth outlook combined with a recovering China challenges the Fed’s goal of suppressing demand. The ISM, JOLTs, NFP and CPI over […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Risky assets enjoy an extended stay in paradise. 2023 could hardly start better for equity markets with the likes of the EuroStoxx50 jumping another 2% plus. The star index is closing in on the recovery closing high just south of 4k. Advances in US bourses were less outspoken. The Nasdaq outperforms by adding about […]

Nonfarm Payrolls to Set the Tone for US Dollar in New Year

Trading in the new year will fire up with the latest US employment data on Friday. Forecasts point to another solid jobs report, although business surveys warn that the labor market has started to lose steam. As for the dollar, calls about its demise and a bearish trend reversal still seem premature. Dollar wins 2022 […]

Chinese Coal Rumors Boost AUD

The AUDUSD caught a bit of a bid yesterday on rumors that China might lift its ban on coal imports from Australia. This could have an important impact on the Australian currency. But, it could also not end up becoming effective, since this rumor has gone around before. Given the situation, it’s good to know […]

Fed Minutes Showed Continued Commitment to High Policy Rates Through 2023

The minutes from the December 13-14, 2022 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that the Fed remains committed to bringing inflation back to target. On the progression of the economy, the Committee members noted that “recent indicators pointed to modest growth of spending and production. Nonetheless, job gains had been robust in recent months, […]

The Fed Keeps a Close Eye on the Labour Market

Market movers today Today’s data calendar is thin. After yesterday’s bunch of data releases and Fed minutes, markets will probably listen closely to Fed’s Bostic in the afternoon. While waiting for Friday’s US payrolls, we get a few US tier-2 employment indicators with the release of ADP employment, initial jobless claims and Challenger job cuts. The 60 second overview Nordic Outlook: This […]

Fed Pricing Remains Too Soft

Released yesterday, the FOMC minutes were hawkish enough to get the S&P500 erase early gains, but not hawkish enough to get the index to close in the red. The index closed the session 0.75% higher. Nasdaq gained 0.50%. The Federal Reserve (Fed) repeated its determination to keep fighting inflation with further rate hikes, and warned […]

Calendar Modestly Interesting With US ADP Labour Data

Markets Yesterday, trading basically followed the pattern from earlier this week. Bonds rallied, with Europe outperforming as investors took further comfort from below consensus (headline) inflation data in most EMU member states. France joined this trend with CPI printing lower than expected at -0.1% M/M and 6.7% Y/Y (from 7.1%). US data brought a more […]

AUD/USD Steadies after Banner Day

The Australian dollar has posted limited losses on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6822, down 0.17%. Australian dollar soars as China mulls coal imports The Australian dollar rocketed higher on Wednesday, rising 1.6% and hitting a 3-week high. This followed reports that China was considering easing its ban on imports of […]