Euro Calm as Data Calendar Remains Light

EUR/USD is almost unchanged on Thursday. The economic calendar is light, with no tier-1 events out of the eurozone. The US releases the ADP employment report and unemployment claims, ahead of the jobs report on Friday. Will eurozone inflation dip? German inflation fell sharply in December, falling to 9.6% from 11.3% in November. This was […]

Oil Started the Year with a Decline

The first two trading sessions of the year have clearly shown that traders are sticking to the bearish patterns formed in the previous six months. Interestingly, oil is not even helped by apparent producer lethargy, which translates into stagnant production and shrinking inventories. Oil, which had been gaining for the last three weeks of the […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The (mainly) European bond and equity rally from the first three trading sessions of the year today met a roadblock. Italy was the last of the major EMU member states to publish preliminary December inflation data. With HICP inflation at 0.2% M/M and 12.3 Y/Y (from 12.6%) the country parted ways from the unexpected, […]

Preliminary Data Sets Up for Another Strong NFP Report

The ADP said the US private sector added 235K jobs in December in a report ahead of tomorrow’s official data release. The market expected an increase of 150k after a rise of 182K a month earlier. The ADP commented on the last report as a turning point, noting a decline of 100k in the manufacturing […]

Decent US Data ahead of Payrolls

Market movers today Today brings this week’s most important data releases both from the euro area and the US. In euro area, flash inflation print for December will be released. Individual country data released thus far suggest that while headline inflation probably continued to decline in December, underlying price pressures remain strong. Consensus is looking […]

Big Companies Cut Jobs

Yesterday’s US ADP print was too strong to please the Fed. And in the middle of tens of thousands of additional job loss news, the NFP data could surprise to the upside, boost the Federal Reserve hawks, send the US yields and the US dollar higher, and stocks lower. How come the US jobs data […]

Can Canadian Jobs Numbers Change the BOC's Mind?

The Loonie has been suffering a bit for a combination of factors. The slide in the price of crude, is one of them, but crude prices are volatile in the current conditions. A more enduring factor is the perception that the BOC is likely to be the first major central bank to pause in the […]

A Solid Labour Market Report Should Help Put a Floor for Core (US and European) Bond Yields

Markets The market focus shifted yesterday from softer than expected EMU inflation (and a broader cooling of inflation expectations) to US (labour market/activity) data. After solid JOLTS job opening published on Wednesday, ADP private job growth (235k from an upwardly revised 182k, vs 150k expected) and US jobless claims (better than expected both for the […]

USD/CAD Eyes Canada, US Job Reports

The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3620, up 0.36%. The first week of the new year has been busy. The Canadian dollar sparkled on Wednesday and climbed 1.4%, but has since pared most of those gains. Canada and the US will wrap up the week […]

Canada's Labour Market Caps Off a Strong Year with Another Big Gain   

The Canadian labour market added 104k positions in December, with full-time employment up 84.5k and part-time employment up 19.5k. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points, to 5.0%. The participation rate rose to 65% (up 0.2 percentage points). By industry, employment was up in construction (+35k), transportation and warehousing (+29k), and information, culture and […]