Week Ahead – Markets Quiet Down for Holidays, Liquidity in Control

A quiet week lies ahead for FX markets as the year draws to a close. The spotlight will fall on the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions, which will add some color around the recent decision to raise the yield ceiling that propelled the yen higher. More broadly, liquidity will be in short supply, making […]

Canada and U.S. Labour Market Reports to Kick off the New Year

Forward Guidance will be on vacation next week, Happy Holidays! A quiet Christmas holiday week will have few economic data releases in North America. But the first week of 2023 will kick off with December labour market reports for the U.S. and Canada. Labour shortages are still a bigger issue than a lack of hiring […]

Week Ahead – Happy Holidays!

US Thin trading conditions could persist as much of Wall Street will be taking off this week. While trading volumes might be lower it will be a week filled with lots of economic readings.  There will be no earnings and no Fed speak. On Monday, US markets will be closed to observe the Christmas holiday.  […]

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Mixed Data to End 2022

Summary United States: Naughty & Nice: Mixed Data to End 2022 This week’s data showed that the U.S. economy is ending the year on a mixed note. The housing market generally showed further signs of deterioration in November, and data on durable goods orders were generally weaker than expected, when backward revisions to previously released […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: Results of Inflation Fight Will Show Next Year

U.S. Highlights The Bank of Japan surprised markets by tweaking its yield curve control policy. The move propped up the Yen and sent equities lower, with smaller reverberations following across global markets. Core PCE inflation eased to 4.7% year-on-year (y/y) in November from 5% in October, coming in only a hair above the market consensus […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Core bonds took a breather after surging on a slightly slower-than-expected US CPI yesterday. US yields still drop a few bps at the front end of the curve but are trading flat further out. USTs outperformed Bunds. German yields gapped lower at the open but immediately headed north with news of the country planning […]

Fed Review: FOMC Signals Fed Funds above 5% in 2023

Fed Review: FOMC Signals Fed Funds above 5% in 2023 The US Federal Reserve hiked the Fed Funds Rate by 50bp as widely anticipated. The updated ‘dots’ signal policy rates above 5% in 2023. EUR/USD recovered near pre-meeting levels despite the hawkish rate projections, as Powell left the door open for less hikes if warranted […]

USD/CHF Could Extend Losses, BoE Rate Decision Next

Key Highlights USD/CHF declined below the 0.9400 and 0.9350 support levels. A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 0.9320 on the 4-hours chart. The Fed increased interest rate by 0.50 percentage point. The BoE interest rate decision is scheduled today (forecast 3.5%, versus 3.0% previous). USD/CHF Technical Analysis The US Dollar started […]

Australia November Labour Force; Employment Sets a Cracking Pace Heading into Christmas

Total employment: 64k from 43.1k (revised from 32.2k); unemployment rate: 3.4% from 3.4% (unrevised 3.4%); participation rate: 66.8% from 66.6% (revised 66.5%). A strong update not just because of the larger than expected gain in employment, and a robust lift in participation to a new record high, but also the upward revisions to both employment […]

Not the Same 50bp

We knew that the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell would not tell investors ‘Ho ho ho, inflation is now 7%, we will stop tightening policy and hiking the rates. So, you can buy stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, whatever you find. Merry Xmas!’ No, he was not going to do that, and he did […]