Bitcoin Gets Ready to Move

Market picture Bitcoin has declined slightly over the past 24 hours – the bulls have still not decided to go on the offensive. Perhaps it is because of an overhang of selling orders from struggling miners. The first cryptocurrency is trading near $16.7K to start the day on Tuesday, having retreated from its 50-day moving […]

China Outlook: Earlier Reopening to Drive Faster Rebound

The Chinese reopening happened faster than we expected, leading us to revise the growth profile for China. We now expect GDP to take a bigger hit in Q4 and Q1 but that the recovery starts already in February/March, 3-4 months earlier than we previously expected. The weak start of the year pulls down the average […]

EUR/USD Slides to Three-Week Low

The US dollar is showing strong gains against the majors on Tuesday, with the exception of the Japanese yen. EUR/USD has tumbled by 1.27% and is trading at 1.0528 in Europe. Investors eye German CPI EUR/USD is sharply lower today, despite a very light economic calendar. The only release of note is German CPI, which […]

Will Eurozone Inflation Keep the ECB on Track for More 50bps Hikes?

Following a hawkish ECB in December, market participants may be eagerly awaiting the preliminary Euro area inflation numbers, due out on Friday at 10:00 GMT, as they try to assess whether more 50 basis points worth of rate hikes are indeed warranted. Will the data confirm the ECB’s aggressive stance? And how may the euro […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Today counts as the real first trading year of the year with UK and US investors returning from New Year festivities. Only Japanese markets remained closed. German December inflation figures were the main dish. Regional numbers throughout the day served as an indicator for the national number, released in European afternoon. It explains the […]

Euro Edges up as Business Climate Improves

EUR/USD has edged higher on Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0610, up 0.24%. The week started on a positive note as German business confidence climbed in December. The Ifo Business Climate index rose to 88.6, up from 86.4 in November and its highest level in five months. Bundesbank revision – growth […]

USD/JPY Dips on Possible Policy Tweak

The Japanese yen has started the week in positive territory. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.22, down 0.38%. The yen is coming off a busy week, as USD/JPY traded in a 350-point range but closed the week almost unchanged. Will Japan change its inflation stance? The markets are keeping an eye on […]

German Business Quickly Recovers from the Shock

Germany’s business sentiment index rose in December for the third month, returning to August levels on the back of more optimistic expectations, while assessment of the current situation has improved just slightly. Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany jumped from 86.4 to 88.6 in December, better than the 87.6 expected. In a commentary on the […]

RBA Board Considered Pause in December

Despite the pause consideration the case was weak – expect another hike of 25 in February. The Reserve Bank Board considered three options in its deliberations at the December Board meeting. The options were: 50 basis point increase in the cash rate; 25 basis point increase; or no increase . This contrasts with recent meetings […]

BOJ Makes Surprise Change to YCC Policy

Market movers today Today, the German Producer Prices will be released for November. Consensus is looking for a second consecutive m/m decline, which would naturally signal good news for the German economy together with the yesterday’s more upbeat Ifo. Flash Consumer Confidence will be released for the broader euro area as well. US housing starts […]