Euro Steady on Light Data Calendar

EUR/USD continues to drift this week, content to stick close to the 1.06 line. There are no eurozone releases today, so I expect the euro to continue treading in place for the remainder of the day. This week’s data calendar in Europe has been very light, with mostly tier-2 releases. On Thursday, Germany and the […]

Japanese Yen Steady Ahead of CPI

The Japanese yen has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 132.09, down 0.27%. The dust has settled after Tuesday’s dramatic events, when the yen shot up 3.7%. This followed the Bank of Japan’s shocking announcement that it would widen its yield curve control on 10-year bonds from 25 bp […]

Negative Sentiment in the Markets ahead of X-mas

Market movers today Japanese inflation data for November was as expected, but at a high level of 3.7% y/y. Hence, this supports the tightening move from BoJ earlier this week. There is PPI data from Finland, France and Spain as well as personal income and durable goods numbers from US. The data should have limited […]

US Durable Goods and Recession Outlook

Tomorrow has the last bit of potentially major market moving data as trading winds down for the holidays. Which means the figures could have implications for how the new year starts, as attention will come back to the economic outlook for the US in particular. There is still a strong majority of economists who expect […]

Canadian Dollar Eyes GDP, US Data

The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3600, down 0.33%. It could be a busy end to the week for the Canadian dollar, with key events in both Canada and the US. Canada releases GDP for October, with a forecast of a weak gain of 0.1% […]

Yen Steady after Core Inflation as Expected

The dust is beginning to settle after the Bank of Japan’s stunning move earlier this week.  At its policy meeting, the BoJ widened the yield curve on long-term bonds from 0.25% to 0.50%. The move blindsided the markets, which had anticipated a ho-hum BoJ meeting with no changes in policy. The announcement sent USD/JPY tumbling by […]

US: Spending Lose Momentum, Core PCE Deflator Eases.

Personal income advanced 0.4% month-on-month (m/m) in November, above market expectations for a more modest gain of 0.3% m/m. Compensation of employees (+0.5% m/m) and personal income receipts on assets (+0.5% m/m) accounted for most of the strength in personal income. Controlling for inflation and taxes, real personal disposable income was up a healthy 0.3% m/m […]

Canada's Economy Edges Up in October, Points to a Flat November

The Canadian economy expanded by 0.1% month/month (m/m) in October, beating Statistics Canada’s flash estimate of no growth. The flash estimate for November points to 0.1% growth. October’s increase in activity was mixed, with output expanding in 11 of 20 industries. The service-producing sector rose by 0.3%, while the goods-producing sector declined 0.7% The gain […]

US Dollar 2023 Outlook

Over the last year, the dollar saw an extended period of strength, but turned around in autumn. Although there were many events to influence that trajectory, the main overriding theme has been the Fed. And as we turn our attention to the new year, it appears that will be the main driver going forward, as […]

Could the Famous "Five-Day" Rule Reveal the Market Direction for the New Trading Year?

The start of each trading year is usually tricky for market participants as they leave behind the festive period. The hype about the new year is not enough to keep the spirit high, but there is an unofficial market rule that makes the first few market sessions purposeful. The famous “five-day” rule states that the yearly performance of the […]