US: Employment Slows Modestly in December, While the Unemployment Rate Returns to 50-year Low

The U.S. economy added 223k jobs in December, slightly above the consensus forecast for 200k. Revisions to the two prior months were negative, subtracting 28k from the previously reported figures. For the year, non-farm payrolls showed the U.S. economy added 4.5 million jobs and ended the year with employment 0.8% above pre-pandemic levels. Employment gains […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets It was a big day datawise, but less so marketwise. Let’s start with the numbers. EMU headline inflation fell as expected more than forecast following earlier national releases: down 0.3% M/M with the Y/Y-reading sliding from 10.1% to 9.2%. It’s the first single digit reading since August. The monthly drop was almost solely due […]

Week Ahead – US Inflation Back in Focus, UK Data to Underline Recession Risks

After a choppy start to the new year, markets will be bracing for the next set of CPI data out of the United States next week amid ongoing unease about Fed policy. Inflation stats are also due out of Australia, while in the United Kingdom, monthly GDP numbers could stoke recession fears yet again. China’s […]

Could the Data Releases Produce Hawkish Expectations for the Bank of Japan?

The second week of the new trading year brings a busier calendar in the Asian powerhouse. There are a plethora of data releases starting with Tokyo CPIs and ending with flow statistics on Friday. With the first BoJ meeting for 2023 scheduled on January 18, the market will have the chance to discover if there […]

Weekly Focus

2023 has arrived and it looks set to be another interesting year for financial markets. Diverging forces are at play leaving markets in a tug of war between different drivers. In bond markets lower inflation and recession points to lower yields, but on the other hand still strong labour markets and high wage pressures as well […]

Dollar and Euro 2020-2022: Forecasts and Realities

Traditionally, we publish currency forecasts from the world’s leading financial institutions at the turn of the outgoing and coming years. We did this two years, and a year ago. Therefore, we can not only look into the future now, but also analyze whether experts were right in the past. 2020-2021: EUR/USD in Times of COVID […]

Slow Week

It has been quite a quiet start to the week with many major markets still closed for Xmas holiday, but no one saw Santa coming this year, have you? On the contrary, the Bank of Japan led drama across the global financial markets reminded that the year will certainly not end on a positive footage, […]

The Euro: An Uncertain Path

Back in October, the Euro fell below parity with the US dollar. Since then, it has rebounded, but hasn’t returned to the levels at the start of the year. Naturally, the question is whether the pair will continue the trend higher, or turn around for another run at parity. And what does this mean for […]

Chinese Reopening Story is Not All Rosy

Yesterday, Russia finally responded to the EU’s price cap on its oil exports, saying that they will simply stop exporting their oil to parties that ‘directly or indirectly use the mechanism of setting a price cap’. The Russian oil export ban will reportedly last at least until July 2023. Fair enough. The latter announcement gave […]

Yen Extends Losses after Summary of Opinions

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground this week and is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 134.11, up 0.49%. Post-Christmas holiday trading remains thin, but USD/JPY has made steady gains and climbed 1% this week. The US dollar has recovered somewhat after last Tuesday’s slide when it […]